The Defeat of Racism and Fascism is on a Knife Edge
by Peter Cranie
The latest detailed breakdown of voting intention figures from YouGov for the North of England shows both the Greens and the BNP on 8% each. UKIP are on 11%. Unlike the polls from ComRes and ICM, that predict BNP support at 5% and 1% (clearly an underestimate), YouGov is likely to be far more accurate and deals with a far larger sample group in regards to “the North”. When we launched our campaign www.stopnickgriffin.org.uk we predicted that it would be a close contest. With less than two weeks to go, we have been proved correct. The tactical backing from Respect put the North West Greens into credible contention, but the national expenses scandal has resulted in a surge in our support, and a Lazarus effect on the political fortunes of UKIP, who polled less than 2% in last year’s London Assembly elections.It remains to be seen if the UKIP surge will last. Libertas have clearly targeted them with their online campaign ads, and with Euro MP expenses now under scrutiny, the next two weeks will be tougher for UKIP. The equations have got more complicated as a result, so we’ve updated the site to take into account a scenario the UKIP surge. It has come at the expense of the large parties, and in particular the Tories. My hope is that UKIP also finish ahead of the BNP, but that can’t be guaranteed, and it certainly isn’t something that socialist voters will be influencing.
Libertas will do little other than damage UKIP in this election. They are polling at around 1%, while Green Party momentum is growing. In fact, we are able to now announce that Ben Tallis, the lead candidate for Libertas in the North West, has resigned from their list, and is backing the Green campaign here. Faced with the threat of Nick Griffin as an MEP, Ben has made clear his reason for joining our campaign.
“We must fight fascism wherever it appears and in the northwest, the Green Party have the best chance of stopping the BNP.”So just how accurate are these polls and how crucial will tactical support for the Greens prove to be? The noticeable factor is that the “certain to vote” score for the Greens, BNP and UKIP is higher than the poll rating given. This points to our supporters being more likely to vote than those of the red, yellow and blue parties. At the end of this campaign the only poll that will matter is the one on election day, so we must keep on campaigning hard.I believe that we’ll see UKIP’s support slip a little in the next ten days. They have an appalling record in Europe and with Nigel Farage finally under scrutiny, expect them to struggle to maintain that rating. There has been concrete evidence on the ground for the rise in support for Greens, UKIP and the BNP. In last Thursday’s council byelection in Salford, the BNP polled 17.1% (up 4.7%) in a ward they regularly contest, with the Greens getting 7.8% never having stood here in recent times. It is not natural political territory for us and to be frank, if we can get this kind of vote in a low potential area, we could poll double figures in large parts of the North West. Labour lost one third of their supporters but held onto the seat, which previously had a huge majority.Before hype sets in about the strength of the BNP, this is an area they will continue to have the potential to do well in, and the intensity of the BNP campaign was far greater than ours. In the words of a Tory councillor in Salford on the Vote-2007 website, the Greens, Tories and UKIP ran paper campaigns with just one leaflet, while it was “…the BNP and LibDems who worked their backsides off for a month or more.”
What is disappointing and worrying is that in a polling district containing 2,000+ students in halls, just 8 people voted. That might be because the students have gone home, or because they simply don’t see a local election as relevant, but if we are to defeat the BNP on the 4th June, we will need students to vote in much higher numbers, along with Hindu, Jewish, Muslim, Sikh and Christian voters, and anti-racists from all communities.
Our targeted campaigning has already seen us advertising in the Big Issue in the North, the Asian News and The Voice. Through online fundraising, mainly on our “Vote Green to Stop Nick Griffin” facebook group, we have raised a further £6,500 (and hope to raise more) to put advertisements into key regional newspapers around the North West in response to the BNP’s own campaign. We will work to expose the BNP’s lies and racism to the angry white working class voters who are being targeted by the far right because of the expenses scandal.
All of us in the campaign, not just Greens, but members of Respect, independents and anti-racists, are working our hardest to ensure that the line is drawn here. A racist and fascist party has advanced this far, and we must not, and will not, let it advance any further. Please watch our short film online at Stop Nick Griffin. You can see that under the D’Hondt voting system that votes cast for smaller parties like the SLP, Libertas and NO2EU won’t have any impact at all in helping to stop the BNP. If you don’t poll highly enough to win a seat you don’t affect the result.
The stakes are very high. A Euro seat will give a guaranteed national presence in the British media for the next five years. If Nick Griffin becomes an MEP, he will have a regional press officer, constituency workers and researchers, all paid for by the European Union. The BNP are already standing in over half the county council seats in Cumbria at this election. If Griffin wins, they will be everywhere across the North West, and expanding out beyond that, within five years. They will be embedded, with the capacity to fight every seat, at a time when a Tory government will be making the biggest cuts in public services we’ve ever seen, and Labour will still be disgraced and rejected by the white working classes it once represented.
You should watch Griffin on the last edition of the North West Politics Show. Griffin is a politician of privilege. The son of a Tory councillor, he attended Cambridge University. He has used his position and background to seek to exploit white working class people in order to build a platform for his racist political movement. In contrast, I was brought up in a council house in Scotland. My uncle and grandfather were miners. My family moved to southern England in the early 1980s because we had to - Thatcher’s policies tore out the manufacturing base in Scotland. I lived with Indian, Irish and Pakistani immigrants when I first moved to England. Like so many Greens I don’t fit the stereotype a lot of people have about us, and I’m proud of that fact.
In 1930, the left was fragmented in Germany. In different circumstances and in a different system, a far right party shot to prominence, leaving the rival Communist party as a sidelined part of German history. I understand and respect why people haven’t voted for the Greens before, but this time we need your support to help us make a stand against the BNP. I hope you can support us, even if we would not be your first choice party under a different voting system. Even if you were to vote Green just once in your lifetime, now is that time. We need to unite to keep the far right from acquiring a power base from which they may prove impossible to shift.
But posters on Socialist Unity are right to ask – what do the Greens stand for? Our manifesto is clear. Re-nationalise the rail network, end PFI, scrap Trident, stop the ID card scheme, an ethical foreign policy, workers’ rights and a commitment to social justice that runs through the heart of our manifesto (you might also find some bits on the environment). There are still policies we have that I don’t like, that are not strong enough, and there are things done in the past by local Green parties that have been less than ideal. But just look at the work done by our existing MEPs Caroline Lucas and Jean Lambert – they have a record that we should all be proud of.I’m constantly inspired by the work Jean Lambert has done on asylum and migrants rights. Caroline’s work on climate change, the most important global issue of all, has been exemplary. Regardless of whether we can stop the fascists gaining a toe hold in Europe we need more MEPs who take these crucial issues more seriously than the occasional lip service or tagging them onto the end of their manifesto because they think they have to.
The choice is yours when you go into the polling station however you feel about things now. Politics should be about principles. There is one reason and one reason only why I am putting myself through the personal stresses of being our candidate in this election, and that is to beat Griffin. If as a socialist you can’t stand with the Greens, then stand alongside me, and vote against him. We can stop Nick Griffin with your help.
Is this Peter Cranie’s voice here, or yours, Derek?
Comment by Strategist — 27 May, 2009 @ 11:11 am
I’am sure both the Labour Party and Lim Dems would also argue that they can stop Nick Griffin and also have an anti racist and anti BNP position as does No2EU. The support from a Libertas candidate for the Greens in something I would not want to shout about myself.
Comment by Red — 27 May, 2009 @ 11:26 am
#2 Watch the short film. It answers your point here and shows why you are wrong.
Comment by Strategist — 27 May, 2009 @ 11:29 am
Do not vote for the left wing BNP!
Comment by Anonymous — 27 May, 2009 @ 11:39 am
#2 In the South East constitunect the best tactical vote if your are primarily motivated by stopping the BNP is probably Lib Dem. In the North West, the best tactical vote is Green.
Comment by Andy Newman — 27 May, 2009 @ 11:39 am
“#2 Watch the short film. It answers your point here and shows why you are wrong.
Comment by Strategist”
I did and its Green Euro YouTube video to maximise the Green vote - well made and a good attempt to say only the Greens are the way to stop the BNP.
But it fails to agknowledge that the Lib Dems may obtain a very significant increase in vote and thereby be the party that could stop the BNP.
People should vote for what they belive in.
If the BNP win seats as is likely its due to te failed polices of New Labour not people standing up for what they believe in what ever they vote be it Green, Lib Dem,Labour, No2EU etc.
Will the Greens get 15%+ - if not thay are going backwards in public support whatever the propaganda on this site.
Comment by Red — 27 May, 2009 @ 11:43 am
The polling period was nearly 2 weeks ago - we’ll get a better idea from polls done in the last few days when they come out. Do you really think significant numbers of people presently thinking of voting BNP are likely to move to the Greens - particularly working class voters. The best bet to undermine the working class BNP vote is No2EU.
Comment by Doug — 27 May, 2009 @ 11:50 am
If all politics is to be reduced to finding the candidate or party best positioned to stop the odd nazi getting elected we simply abandon the aim of independent working class and socialist political representation.
Fascism always emerges when traditional forms of maintaining bourgeois hegemony lose their purchase. It needs to be combatted by a wider range of measures than simple electoral manouevres. In fact, this whole discourse runs the real danger of reinforcing the fascist claim that they really represent the alternative to the existing system and existing parties.
Comment by Nick Wright — 27 May, 2009 @ 11:51 am
#8 I dislike tactical voting as much as you, Nick. But when the party you support is at 2% or less in popularity then it’s something you have to consider, even in a PR election.
A decision to vote tactically is usually motivated by the greater desire to see a party you dislike not get elected than positive support for the leading challenger to that party. I have voted LibDem in places I have lived in the past on that basis, and have not regretted it.
But with the Greens none of this really arises. There are loads of positive reasons for anyone in the North West to vote Green, in any social class. If you read the Green manifesto, I bet you would find much to like in it. The Greens stand for making the necessary radical change in our attitude to each other and the planet.
Comment by Strategist — 27 May, 2009 @ 12:17 pm
#5 Are the BNP actually in with a chance of taking a seat in South East England?
An interesting poll quoted here http://southeast.greenparty.org.uk/region/southeast/news/poll-puts-greens-in-third-position-in-the-south-east.html puts the Greens in third place on 16% ahead of UKIP on 15% with the LibDems in fifth place. At these figures, the Greens are pushing for 2 seats and every vote counts.
Comment by Strategist — 27 May, 2009 @ 12:23 pm
#8 “If all politics is to be reduced to finding the candidate or party best positioned to stop the odd nazi getting elected we simply abandon the aim of independent working class and socialist political representation.”
Indeed. but we shouldn’t overlook the fact that in this particular election the alleigances of voters to the mainstream parties are extremely attenuated, and there may be many electors who want to maake the best tactical vote against the BNP.
personally I will be voting labour on the relativly simple basis that there is a very real threat that labor will lose their only seat in the Soyth West, and that to be frank I would rather have Glyn as an MEP than Alex Gordon anyway!
Comment by Andy Newman — 27 May, 2009 @ 12:36 pm
I have a lot of respect for Derek Wall and other socialists in the Green Party. But I think a number of other factors have to be taken into account.
Firstly, tactical voting by those readers of this blog who are minded to engage in it (which I would support when reasonably sure it could be effective), and others they can influence, is unlikely to be of any significance. The weight is simply not there.
Secondly, No2EU election broadcasts and mass Royal Mail distribution in numerous towns and cities - happening now and at last putting No2EU on some people’s radar - could have an even more crucial impact on the potential fascist vote (perhaps ultimately to the benefit of the Greens, Labour or whoever is best placed to deny the BNP a seat).
Thirdly, while some Green candidates are active in the anti-fascist movement, many are not. This is not to doubt their anti-fascist sentiment - but I haven’t seen many Greens actively engaged in Searchlight and UAF work before (or even during) this election campaign. Late claims for the wholesale voting allegiance of anti-fascists ring a little hollow in many cases (although not from Derek personally).
Fourth, the Greens so far have shown no inclination to discuss or enter into arrangements whereby they stand down and/or urge votes for other left candidates. In fact, we’ve already been told by Green Party members elsewhere on this site that the rest of us on the left can forget any idea that Greens will stand down anywhere at the next General Election - we can only contemplate possibilities for 2 or 3 years’ time.
I have attended hustings where Green candidates have had nothing to say about combating the fascists, and clearly have never given it any serious thought. That’s as well as having all sorts of illusions about the “democratic” and “green” character of the EU and policies.
Comment by Party hack — 27 May, 2009 @ 12:43 pm
All this reminds me of how voters in the USA were urged to vote for a man convicted of corruption because he was the most likely candidate to stop David Duke, a neo-Nazi, from winning. So people had car stickers saying “Vote for the crook! It’s important!”
The poverty of bourgeois politics has never been more apparent. Sadly, the left has failed to produce a proper response.
Comment by Faust — 27 May, 2009 @ 1:32 pm
Andy says ” I would rather have Glyn as an MEP than Alex Gordon anyway!”
Good advice, vote for the candidate you support not the one you think might stop the one you most dislike from getting elected.
Vote for Alex Gordon, he speaks perfect French!
Comment by Nick Wright — 27 May, 2009 @ 1:38 pm
Are antifascists also prioritising the County Council wards where they have a reasonable chance of a gain - especially as in a number of winnable wards they dont have UKIP or Greens to eat up the “expenses” protest vote?
Comment by JimPage — 27 May, 2009 @ 2:26 pm
I’m sorry but to my sensitive artistic eyes the post formatting is horrific, have BNP gremlins infiltrated? Some may regard this as a facile point but lefties have aesthetic sense too!
Comment by RickB — 27 May, 2009 @ 3:29 pm
The BNP is a socialist party, a party that disgruntled labour supporters are turning to. You woin’t win the battle against the BNP until socialists face up to the truth that failed leftist politics is spawing support for this party.
Comment by Graeme — 27 May, 2009 @ 4:31 pm
The BNP is fascist party, with some admirers of Hitlers national socialists within its leadership.
The fact that the BNP uses elements of socialism to make them more attractive at the ballot box indicates the opportunist nature of their politics.
Socialism is about the liberation of workers from exploitation. Nazism is about increasing the exploitation of workers.
Comment by Theo Saurus — 27 May, 2009 @ 4:52 pm
Just so people are clear this article is by NW lead candidate for the Greens, Peter Cranie.
http://petercranie.blogspot.com/
Comment by Jim Jay — 27 May, 2009 @ 5:35 pm
Andy, it is highly unlikely for the BNP to get anywhere close to a seat in the South East, where as the Greens are actually close to gaining two MEPs from down here. The breakdown of the polling in the South East has put the Greens on somewhere between 12-16%, we only need 14% to get another MEP.
The news that Joanna Lumley is backing the Greens should hopefully send a shock wave through middle England and may even bring out some unexpected voters for the Greens. But time will tell.
I agree with the above points. The campaign in the North West has brought together the broadest coalition around the Green campaign than anywhere else in the party. It is a genuine united front which puts progressive policies and hope at the front of the campaign, whilst combating the politics of hate.
Comment by Luke — 27 May, 2009 @ 6:01 pm
What a cynical piece of sheer opportunism by the greens. Trying to manipulate the “BNP” threat to try to panic people into voting green. Pathetic!
Vote green if you agree with them by all means, but don’t fall for this unprincipled shite.
Comment by Karl Stewart — 27 May, 2009 @ 7:22 pm
Karl, stop using the word ‘opportunism’, it’s an election, we’re all opportunists. No2EU is opportunist for attempting to cash in on blatent out-and-out Europhobia (Europhobia is the complete saying no to the European Union, Euroscepticism is just a scepticism of centralisation of the EU power structure)from British people without actually talking about it’s socialist credentials, I could say the same, and I will.
I expect to see constructive argument without resorting to profanities. All it shows is frustration without any strong reason for that frustration. It’s an election and I know how tensions flare, especially when we see our respective parties and electoral projects not polling where we like and when we expect a particular demographic to come rushing to our flocks.
Our campaign in the North West is backed up by strong and bold policies designed to bring temporate relief of the economic and ecological crisis throught the ‘Green New Deal.’ The party is under no illusion that it is a permanant answer, but we see it as a stepping stone in the right direction on regulating capitalism, protecting public services, and re-designing the UK economy towards the Green collar. Those are the principles of our campaign, that is our message. Yes we’re saying ‘Stop the BNP’ and then ‘Vote Green’ as a means to do that because we are the positive alternative, the electoral alternative, to the politics of the mainstream and the far-right. It is an electoral message focused around our core principles.
Comment by Luke — 27 May, 2009 @ 7:44 pm
Hi Luke,
Glad you agree with me that Peter Cranie’s article is opportunist.
By all means fight for votes by arguing for your party’s policies, but the anti-fascist struggle is not the property of any single political tendency.
Comment by Karl Stewart — 27 May, 2009 @ 10:41 pm
This article is highly opportunist and contradictory. From saying we need to vote Green to stop the BNP we now have an argument that says that we need to vote Green to stop UKIP stopping the BNP. Surely if the exercise is simply stoppping the BNP then the Green candidate should stand down in favour of UKIP rather than forming an alliance with Libertas?
Crainie seems to be saying that we should ignore the polls because UKIP will face problems over EU expenses in coming weeks. Shouldnt we then be careful about using our vote for the Greens given the German Green MEPs latest scandal and the Scottish Greens abuse of the homes allowance in the Scottish parliament?
This is desperate stuff, a party that never show any desire to form alliances with the left (unless that alliance is voting Green) is now in alliance with Libertas over the issue of placing the Greens above UKIP?
Where will it end?
Comment by Jim Monaghan — 28 May, 2009 @ 1:07 am
Jim, we are not in an alliance with Libertas. Their lead candidate stood down because he had deep reservations about the political company that Libertas has in a number of Eastern European states- namely homophobes and xenophobes.
It’s not an alliance. Get your facts right before you make such claims.
Karl, what I’m saying is we’re all opportunists. It’s an election, you have to seek opportunities where you can. Are you seriously saying then that No2EU is not opportunist because it intends to take reactionary working class votes away from the BNP?
Comment by Luke — 28 May, 2009 @ 6:25 am
Luke, it’s good that you agree that Peter’s article is opportunist. But you can’t excuse his utter lack of principle by simply pointing to alleged opportunism elsewhere.
All you’re doing with that approach is saying: “Ok, we’re unprincipled opportunists, but so is everyone else, so that’s ok then.”
If you think as I do that Peter’s article is opportunist, then criticise it, don’t try to justify it.
Regarding No2EU, fair point Luke, if No2EU candidates used Peter Cranie-style opportunism, then I’d criticise them in the strongest terms - I wouldn’t try to justify it by saying others are just as bad.
Comment by Karl Stewart — 28 May, 2009 @ 7:53 am
But opportunism isn’t a bad and evil thing. It’s by making opportunities that you get elected, this is the strategy in the North West. I seriously hope everyone on this blog can agree that having a Green MEP is a much better situation than having a BNP one.
The strategy has worked, look at the polls and see where the Greens are in the North West. We’re on course to double our number of MEPs (maybe more, who knows?), so it’s not been in bad taste or been a flop, it’s worked, all credit to the team there because it has put the Greens right in contention.
I know I’m making apologies but it’s an election, this is how it’s done.
Comment by Luke — 28 May, 2009 @ 6:22 pm