When Big Business shivers; the unemployed are likely to catch pneumonia
By Jon Trickett MP
The election campaign was dominated by the soap opera of the personality interplays of the Leaders’ TV debates.
But beneath these media obsessions, there were real issues at stake. The most important issue of the economic recovery was completely overlooked. At the core of this debate was who shall pay for the Bankers’ greed and how the country will recover. I will argue later and elsewhere that Labour’s election strategy was significantly inhibited by a lack of boldness, but for the moment it is instructive to explore the terms of the debate between the Party Leaderships.
Two contending visions of how to respond to the crisis should have been on offer. Unfortunately, these visions were only poorly expressed during the campaign.
On one side were the Tory Right who wanted to cut the deficit immediately. On the other, were the Labour and Liberal campaigns who argued that it would be foolish to cut whilst in the middle of a crisis and with the recovery only fragile at best.
A secondary theme was of taxation. The Labour Government had introduced a policy of raising National Insurance which has the virtue of being ever so mildly progressive. National Insurance falls most heavily on higher income earners and on the employers. This rise would not come into play until next year when the recovery is more secure. On the other hand, the Tories said that National Insurance is a tax on jobs. What they did not say is that they would abolish the NI rise by increasing VAT. This is a regressive tax which falls as heavily on poor as it does on the rich.
The truth is that Labour Governments have never increased VAT but our campaign was inhibited completely by Treasury orthodoxy, and so we would not rule out a VAT increase, we failed to capitalise on the secret Tory tax plan.
It is not difficult to see a loss of self-confidence in New Labour’s campaign which dates from the time when a host of business leaders attacked the NI proposal, an attack coordinated by the Conservatives.
But what is curious is that the Tory policy is not in the short term interest of the business community. If the government begins to cut expenditure or increase taxation, or both, then there will be a fall in demand in the economy. If demand declines, then there is a diminishing capacity to sell your products and therefore a decline in profitability. This in turn leads to workers being laid off and further falls in demand. And so we enter a further recessionary downward spiral.
Within days of the Tory/Liberal coalition, the business community began to show signs of anxiety as the realisation began to emerge that the new government might actually endanger profitability.
The Financial Times noted that “ London equities were back under heavy pressure on Friday, as traders worried about the potential impact of austerity measures on economic growth.”
In fact the pace of the selling grew as the Friday session developed and as traders began to digest the new government’s intentions. The FTSE 100 lost 129 points to 5,307.08, a loss of 2.3 per cent in a single day.
The decline was broad-based, with all but two of the benchmark index’s constituents falling, more than wiping out the 0.9 per cent advance of the previous session, when strong earnings news provided some momentum.
The FT quoted a market analyst as saying that the FTSE was being marked down as “Investors are having to recognise that as economies start to get to grips with the important fiscal cuts needed to reign in deficits, consumers will have less cash to spend and this could impact on company earnings and economic growth. We have seen investors continue to move money out of the banks and miners and into the safe havens of the dollar and gold.”
The markets have suffered even further today, following the new Chancellor’s announcement that the Labour government had been ‘fiddling forecasts’ and sterling dropped to its lowest since March 2009. Playing party politics with investors’ confidence in the UK reminds me of the old story about the Pharaoh on his deathbed; he leaves his son three tablets of stone containing advice on how to run the empire and tells him to only read them in order when the previous one has failed. The son runs the empire successfully for a number of years until the public start to turn against him, he goes to the first tablet which advises ‘blame your predecessor’, which he duly does and calms the situation for a while, when the pubic start to revolt again he turns to the second tablet, which advises ‘re-structure your empire’. The son puts in new systems and changes the entire way his empire is governed, which works, for a time and eventually he has to turn to the third tablet, which says ‘write out three tablets of stone for your successor.’ The Conservatives are currently on tablet number one.
Equally interesting were some comments from the boss of Sainsbury’s, Mr Justin King. Before we turn to Mr King’s comments we should recall the fact that his is hardly in the personal category of someone who need worry overmuch about a bit of fiscal squeezing. Last year he was reported as receiving an income of about £5 million. Readers may also recall that this gentleman was one of the business leaders who launched the Exocet critique of Labour’s National Insurance rise in the middle of the election campaign.
Last week Mr King naturally welcomed the new government, saying he was pleased it had “addressed the budget deficit with more candour in the first four hours than in the four weeks before the election”. This was because they Cameron’s team had announced that the full NI rise would not proceed. However, the realisation had perhaps only just occurred to him that the Tory alternative to National Insurance might be a rise in VAT. Suddenly his euphoria turned to caution. He warned the Tory Lib coalition that removing VAT exemptions on food would hit the poorest shoppers the most. As the Chief Executive of a major food retailer, it might hit his pocket too!
Today the new Chancellor has announced new measures which will send further shivers down the spines of business. It is said that he has discovered further black holes in the budget and it is being suggested that he will add the PFI finances of the last decade on to the public sector balance sheet. In the meantime there will be cuts on public programmes within 7 days.
All this is economics straight out of the Chicago school. There can be no question that the coalition government will place us into a further downward spiral. Businesses which depend on expanding demand within the economy can expect difficult times ahead. As always, though, when Businessmen shiver it is the poor, the old, the ill and the unemployed who catch pneumonia.
A shorter version of this article appeared in the Guardian